Ledger / FSLR

FSLR First Solar Inc. · Energy

Every AI judgment on FSLR since day one — direction, confidence, evidence, counter-argument, and how each call settled against real market prices. Append-only: nothing can be edited or deleted.

Judgments
2
5-trading-day horizon
Hit rate (hit / miss)
0 hit / 0 miss — sample forming
settled against real prices
Latest direction
neutral
55% confidence
Invalidation
A close back above 200 (reclaiming the 11/4 gap zone) would
condition that voids the call

Latest judgment

neutral 55% confidence · data through 2026-11-04 · settles 2026-11-12.

FSLR gapped up ~11% on 11/4 to a 206 open but reversed hard, closing at 194.51 near the low on 8.6M volume (3x normal) — a blow-off/outside-day reversal after a steep run from ~171 to 188. Momentum is still positive but the volume-confirmed rejection at highs argues for chop/consolidation over the next 5 days rather than clean continuation.

Invalidation: A close back above 200 (reclaiming the 11/4 gap zone) would negate the reversal thesis and favor bullish continuation; a close below 176 (pre-gap base) would flip to bearish.

Judgment history

  • neutral 55% · decided 2026-11-03 → settles 2026-11-11 · pending
    FSLR is coiling in a tight 163.7-168.1 range with no directional resolution: recent bars show lower highs off the 168.1 peak and a mild drift to 163.96, but volume is unremarkable and no catalyst/filing is present. With no fresh news and a compressed range, a neutral watch stance is better calibrated than a directional bet over 5 sessions.
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