ITW Illinois Tool Works Inc. · Industrials
Every AI judgment on ITW since day one — direction, confidence, evidence, counter-argument, and how each call settled against real market prices. Append-only: nothing can be edited or deleted.
Latest judgment
neutral 45% confidence · data through 2026-11-05 · settles 2026-11-13.
ITW showed strong relative strength (+5.9% vs XLI) into 11/4, but 11/5 reversed hard from 297 to 285 on higher volume — a failed breakout / outside-day reversal. With SPY -4.7% and XLI -4.5% in a risk-off regime and no catalyst inside the window, the 3.25% expected move is mostly beta noise. Prior bullish call's invalidation (close below gap ~278) is near; momentum has stalled.
Invalidation: A close above 297 (reclaiming the 11/4 high) on strong volume, or a decisive break below 278, would resolve direction and void this neutral stance.
Judgment history
- bullish 58% · decided 2026-11-04 → settles 2026-11-12 · pending
ITW broke out to fresh highs on 11/4 (close 293.45, +5.7% vs XLI over 5d) despite SPY soft and below MA20 — clear relative strength after the 10/27-28 8-K/10-Q. Momentum, not a binary event, drives the next 5 days; expected 5d move ~2.9% is above the 1% threshold. Mixed tape caps conviction.
Full interactive timeline with candlestick chart is loading below.