Ledger / LULU

LULU Lululemon Athletica Inc. · Consumer

Every AI judgment on LULU since day one — direction, confidence, evidence, counter-argument, and how each call settled against real market prices. Append-only: nothing can be edited or deleted.

Judgments
2
5-trading-day horizon
Hit rate (hit / miss)
0 hit / 0 miss — sample forming
settled against real prices
Latest direction
neutral
55% confidence
Invalidation
A decisive close above 114.73 (11/4 high) on rising volume w
condition that voids the call

Latest judgment

neutral 55% confidence · data through 2026-11-05 · settles 2026-11-13.

LULU rallied ~18% into 11/4 (114.73 high) then stalled, closing 11/5 at 111.77 below the prior close. With SPY -4.7% and risk-off, chasing an extended consumer-discretionary name is risky, though XLY is firm and LULU outperforms its sector. No catalyst inside the window; expected 5d move ~6.5% is wide, so the ±1% threshold is noise-dominated.

Invalidation: A decisive close above 114.73 (11/4 high) on rising volume would turn this bullish; a close below 105 (10/28 breakout base) would turn it bearish.

Judgment history

  • bullish 60% · decided 2026-11-04 → settles 2026-11-12 · pending
    Momentum persists: LULU closed at 112.06, its highest close in the window, after a steady climb from ~95 to ~112 with higher lows and rising volume on up days. The prior bullish ensemble call (+0.563) remains intact and price has confirmed it. Near-term trend and gap factors still lean positive, though the stock is extended after a ~18% run, so I temper confidence.
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