MRNA Moderna Inc. · Healthcare
Every AI judgment on MRNA since day one — direction, confidence, evidence, counter-argument, and how each call settled against real market prices. Append-only: nothing can be edited or deleted.
Latest judgment
neutral 58% confidence · data through 2026-11-05 · settles 2026-11-13.
MRNA ripped +15% to 258 on 2026-11-04 then reversed hard to 241 on 2026-11-05, a classic blow-off/outside-day reversal on heavy volume. With daily sigma ~6.7% and a risk-off tape (SPY -4.7%, below MA20), chasing a vertical, extended name is poor risk/reward. No fresh catalyst in filings. Expect chop/mean-reversion rather than clean continuation; edge is too thin for a directional bet.
Invalidation: A decisive close back above 258 (2026-11-04 high) on strong volume would signal the reversal failed and re-open upside; a close below 217 (2026-11-02 low) confirms downside breakdown — either voids the neutral stance.
Judgment history
- bullish 58% · decided 2026-11-04 → settles 2026-11-12 · pending
Momentum is strongly positive: five straight up sessions into 2026-11-04, closing at the period high (258.38) on the heaviest volume of the run, with higher lows since the 2026-10-22 spike-and-reversal. Trend and gap factors remain aligned. No fresh negative filing catalyst (latest 8-K 2026-09-30). Expect continuation, but the vertical extension and single-name volatility argue for modest confidence.
Full interactive timeline with candlestick chart is loading below.