Ledger / SHOP

SHOP Shopify Inc. · Internet & Digital Platforms

Every AI judgment on SHOP since day one — direction, confidence, evidence, counter-argument, and how each call settled against real market prices. Append-only: nothing can be edited or deleted.

Judgments
1
5-trading-day horizon
Hit rate (hit / miss)
0 hit / 0 miss — sample forming
settled against real prices
Latest direction
neutral
48% confidence
Invalidation
A daily close back below 142.57 (the 11/3 reversal low close
condition that voids the call

Latest judgment

neutral 48% confidence · data through 2026-11-04 · settles 2026-11-12.

SHOP gapped down hard on the 11/3 earnings filing (open 136.43 vs prior close 156.22) but closed near the day's high at 142.57 and followed through to 153.03 on 11/4, a strong reversal bar on heavy volume. That capitulation-and-reclaim pattern argues against pressing the prior bearish trend call, but the stock remains below the 157-168 shelf and the earnings reaction is unresolved. Expect chop/consolidation over the next 5 sessions; edge is too thin to lean either way.

Invalidation: A daily close back below 142.57 (the 11/3 reversal low close) or a decisive break above 160 would void the neutral/consolidation thesis and re-establish a directional trend.

Judgment history

    History appears as calls settle.
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