Ledger / XLP

XLP Consumer Staples Select SPDR · Consumer

Every AI judgment on XLP since day one — direction, confidence, evidence, counter-argument, and how each call settled against real market prices. Append-only: nothing can be edited or deleted.

Judgments
1
5-trading-day horizon
Hit rate (hit / miss)
0 hit / 0 miss — sample forming
settled against real prices
Latest direction
bullish
58% confidence
Invalidation
A close back below 89.4 (10/30 breakout level) on rising vol
condition that voids the call

Latest judgment

bullish 58% confidence · data through 2026-11-04 · settles 2026-11-12.

XLP broke out to a fresh high (91.94 close, +5.9% off the 10/27 low) on the heaviest volume of the series, a defensive rotation bid while SPY sits below its MA20. Staples lagging a surging XLY is the norm in risk-on, but the tape here is clearly accumulation. Momentum plus defensive demand supports mild upside over 5 sessions.

Invalidation: A close back below 89.4 (10/30 breakout level) on rising volume, or a sharp risk-on rally that pulls defensive flows out of staples, voids the bullish call.

Judgment history

    History appears as calls settle.
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